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How People Interpret Probability

Human language is not exact, here is a great example “a NATO study would find something similar: ask 23 officers what ‘likely’ means in terms of probability, and you’ll get a dozen different numbers” https://kucharski.substack.com/p/possibly-a-serious-possibility

Why Superstiton is Sometimes Good

Great insights into the benefits of tribalism [You Are Not So Smart] 298 – Tribal – Michael Morris #youAreNotSoSmart https://podcastaddict.com/you-are-not-so-smart/episode/184180918 via @PodcastAddict

Being Trapped

You can be trapped in bad situation and in good situation. Being trapped in bad situations is easier in a way. You know you have to get out somehow. But being trapped in a good situation is difficult. You feel… Read More »Being Trapped

When Perfect System Fails

Even the most perfect system will eventually fail “For generations, this system worked brilliantly against every opponent. Tribal warriors from Gaul? Crushed. Greek phalanxes? Defeated. The mighty armies of Carthage? Sent packing in the First Punic War. Rome’s military success… Read More »When Perfect System Fails